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The Weekly Bottom Line

by Sergio Mariaca on Sep 7, 2019 3:18:00 PM |Share:

Here is what happened in the Capital Markets this week.

The Weekly Bottom Line (please click link to open)

The Weekly Bottom Line, courtesy of TD Economics, includes a review of market performances, recent key economic indicators, a calendar of upcoming key economic releases, and other relevant data. The highlights from this week’s report include: 

  • After a dour start to the week, U.S. equities rebounded as they discounted news of a broadening global manufacturing slump.
  • On net, the data this week suggested that the U.S. economy remains healthy, but warnings signals are still flashing.
  • Renewed optimism in financial markets is encouraging, but with an intensification of downside political risks we cannot rely solely on financial market signals to get a sense of where economic growth is headed.

The Weekly Bottom Line

by Sergio Mariaca on Aug 30, 2019 3:14:00 PM |Share:

Here is what happened in the Capital Markets this week.

The Weekly Bottom Line (please click link to open)

The Weekly Bottom Line, courtesy of TD Economics, includes a review of market performances, recent key economic indicators, a calendar of upcoming key economic releases, and other relevant data. The highlights from this week’s report include: 

  • US-China trade tensions spiked last Friday as both countries announced more protectionist measures against each other, but later eased this week. Equity markets swept the escalation under the rug, making a full recovery on the week.
  • Second-quarter U.S. GDP growth was little changed in a second reading, but consumption was revised up to an even better 4.7% annualized. Real spending was up 0.4% m/m in July, making for a solid start to third-quarter consumption.
  • A cloud of uncertainty continues to weigh on the global economic outlook. The odds of a no-deal Brexit have increased following a planned shutdown of the UK’s Parliament from September 9th to mid-October. Meanwhile, parties are scrambling in Italy to form a new government, but the potential new coalition government stands on shaky footing.

The Weekly Bottom Line

by Sergio Mariaca on Aug 24, 2019 3:11:00 PM |Share:

Here is what happened in the Capital Markets this week.

The Weekly Bottom Line (please click link to open)

The Weekly Bottom Line, courtesy of TD Economics, includes a review of market performances, recent key economic indicators, a calendar of upcoming key economic releases, and other relevant data. The highlights from this week’s report include: 

  • This week may have been short on economic data, but the fireworks were lit on Friday as the President lashed out against China’s decision to impose tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. imports, sending stock markets into a tailspin.
  • Risks increased, and global outlook has darkened since the Fed’s last meeting in July. Chair Powell acknowledged this at Jackson Hole, saying the Fed “will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.” We anticipate two additional cuts will be needed this year to cushion the economy.
  • The lone data release, existing home sales, was positive, with sales rising 2.5% in July and up 9.9% since January’s trough.

The Weekly Bottom Line

by Sergio Mariaca on Aug 17, 2019 3:07:00 PM |Share:

Here is what happened in the Capital Markets this week.

The Weekly Bottom Line (please click link to open)

The Weekly Bottom Line, courtesy of TD Economics, includes a review of market performances, recent key economic indicators, a calendar of upcoming key economic releases, and other relevant data. The highlights from this week’s report include: 

  • There was no summer vacation from financial market volatility this week as investors were increasingly worried that the global economy is about to slip into recession.
  • The difference between the 10 and 2-Year Treasury yields turned briefly negative this week, sending a signal that bond investors expect the economy to get worse before it gets better. While the risks of a recession have risen, we are not there yet.
  • The U.S. data was mixed this week, with evidence that tariffs are impacting prices and the factory sector. Consumers continue to be the bright spot, and there were signs that housing may be firming too.

The Weekly Bottom Line

by Sergio Mariaca on Aug 10, 2019 3:03:00 PM |Share:

Here is what happened in the Capital Markets this week.

The Weekly Bottom Line (please click link to open)

The Weekly Bottom Line, courtesy of TD Economics, includes a review of market performances, recent key economic indicators, a calendar of upcoming key economic releases, and other relevant data. The highlights from this week’s report include: 

  • China responded to the threat of additional U.S. tariffs by halting agricultural purchases and allowing its currency to weaken beyond the psychologically important 7 yuan to the dollar level.
  • Central banks around the world responded to the heightened risk posed by the spiraling trade war by proactively cutting policy interest rates.
  • The U.S. services sector showed signs of cooling in July as the ISM non-manufacturing index declined to 53.7 from 55.1 the previous month.

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