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The Weekly Bottom Line

by Sergio Mariaca on May 3, 2019 3:08:00 PM |Share:

Here is what happened in the Capital Markets this week.

The Weekly Bottom Line (please click link to open)

The Weekly Bottom Line, courtesy of TD Economics, includes a review of market performances, recent key economic indicators, a calendar of upcoming key economic releases, and other relevant data. The highlights from this week’s report include: 

·        Apart from vehicle sales, recent data paint a positive narrative for consumer-related industries at the start of spring. Real consumer spending and pending home sales surged in March, while consumer confidence improved in April.

·        Payrolls were up 263k in April, much better than expected; wage growth held steady at 3.2% y/y and the unemployment rate fell to a near-50 year low of 3.6%. A drop in the labor force participation rate assisted the latter.

·        The Fed held rates steady this week, with an emphasis put on inflation running below target. But in the press conference, Fed Chair Powell noted that inflation was driven down by “transient” factors, adding that there is no strong case “for moving in either direction”. Indeed, for now, all of the tea leaves suggest that the Fed will remain on hold for some time.

The Weekly Bottom Line

by Sergio Mariaca on Apr 26, 2019 1:48:00 PM |Share:

Here is what happened in the Capital Markets this week.

The Weekly Bottom Line (please click link to open)

The Weekly Bottom Line, courtesy of TD Economics, includes a review of market performances, recent key economic indicators, a calendar of upcoming key economic releases, and other relevant data. The highlights from this week’s report include: 

·        The American economy grew by 3.2% in the first quarter of 2019, comfortably beating market expectations. However, the strength was driven by inventories and net exports, while domestic demand growth weakened.

·        The housing market continues to be an economic weak link. Existing home sales in March fell below expectations. A lack of inventory appears to be weighing on sales activity.

·        As confirmed in the GDP report, price pressures were softer than expected early in the year, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s move to the sidelines.

The Weekly Bottom Line

by Sergio Mariaca on Apr 18, 2019 6:01:00 PM |Share:

Here is what happened in the Capital Markets this week.

The Weekly Bottom Line (please click link to open)

The Weekly Bottom Line, courtesy of TD Economics, includes a review of market performances, recent key economic indicators, a calendar of upcoming key economic releases, and other relevant data. The highlights from this week’s report include: 

·         Spring is coming to the U.S. economy after a tough winter. An impressive bounce back in retail sales in March indicates that consumer spending will bounce back in the second quarter after a disappointing start.

·         First quarter GDP growth is released next week, and it is likely going to be messy. A strong headline is likely to belie weakness domestically, while the reverse is likely to be the case in Q2.

·         Overall growth in the first half of the year is tracking close to our March forecast, the quarterly pattern is somewhat reversed. The overall story that the economy has slowed from its 2018 pace, but remains above trend, remains intact.

The Weekly Bottom Line

by Sergio Mariaca on Apr 15, 2019 6:48:16 AM |Share:

Here is what happened in the Capital Markets this week.

The Weekly Bottom Line (please click link to open)

The Weekly Bottom Line, courtesy of TD Economics, includes a review of market performances, recent key economic indicators, a calendar of upcoming key economic releases, and other relevant data. The highlights from this week’s report include: 

·        Inflation pressures remain benign, as headline consumer prices rose just 1.9% year-on-year in March, and core prices came in at 2.0%. These numbers reinforce the Fed’s ‘patience’ stance that was reiterated in its March FOMC minutes.

·        US-China trade negotiations are progressing with China appearing to make further concessions on tech-related issues, and the two sides agreeing on an enforcement mechanism.

·        Trade talks with the EU, however, are set to become more contentious as the U.S. threatens tariffs on EU imports following a ruling from the WTO on a longstanding disagreement.

The Weekly Bottom Line

by Sergio Mariaca on Apr 5, 2019 3:52:00 PM |Share:

Here is what happened in the Capital Markets this week.

The Weekly Bottom Line (please click link to open)

The Weekly Bottom Line, courtesy of TD Economics, includes a review of market performances, recent key economic indicators, a calendar of upcoming key economic releases, and other relevant data. The highlights from this week’s report include: 

·        Progress on U.S.-China trade negotiations helped support risk appetite this week, with equity prices and yields up.

·        February retail sales fell 0.2% month-on-month, but an upgrade to January made it more palatable. On the other hand, the job market bounced back in March (+196k), confirming that the weakness in February was but a speed bump.

·        The pace of job gains is expected to slow to around 150k per month on average over the remainder of the 2019 – slower than last year, but still decent and more than sufficient to keep downward pressure on the unemployment rate.

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