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The Weekly Bottom Line

by Sergio Mariaca on Jan 18, 2019 4:56:03 PM |Share:

Here is what happened in the Capital Markets this week.

The Weekly Bottom Line (please click link to open)

The Weekly Bottom Line, courtesy of TD Economics, includes a review of market performances, recent key economic indicators, a calendar of upcoming key economic releases, and other relevant data. The highlights from this week’s report include:

·        The government shutdown extended to its 28th day, making it the longest on record with no clear end in sight.

·        The White House upped its estimate of the impact of the government shutdown to a 0.5ppt drag on 19Q1 growth after four weeks. This is much higher than private sector estimates of between -0.1 to -0.2 ppts.

·        As expected, the Brexit withdrawal agreement was soundly rejected by UK parliament. With the March 29th deadline fast approaching, it looks increasingly likely that the UK will have no choice but to seek an extension from the EU.

The Weekly Bottom Line

by Sergio Mariaca on Jan 11, 2019 3:01:09 PM |Share:

Here is what happened in the Capital Markets this week.

The Weekly Bottom Line (please click link to open)

The Weekly Bottom Line, courtesy of TD Economics, includes a review of market performances, recent key economic indicators, a calendar of upcoming key economic releases, and other relevant data. The highlights from this week’s report include:

·         U.S. equity markets built on last Friday’s gains, firming up for the second consecutive week. Seemingly-fruitful trade negotiations between the U.S. and China offered notable support.

·         With respect to data, both the ISM non-manufacturing index and small business confidence have eased from recent highs, but remain in healthy territory. Inflation data came in as expected, with core CPI holding steady at 2.2% y/y.

·         The government shutdown, which is on track to become the longest in U.S. history, may test the Fed’s wait and see approach to monetary policy, given data distortions and delays. If it ends soon, we expect its impact to be quite modest. But each passing week has the potential to amplify the impact.

The Weekly Bottom Line

by Sergio Mariaca on Jan 4, 2019 2:51:00 PM |Share:

Here is what happened in the Capital Markets this week.

The Weekly Bottom Line (please click link to open)

The Weekly Bottom Line, courtesy of TD Economics, includes a review of market performances, recent key economic indicators, a calendar of upcoming key economic releases, and other relevant data. The highlights from this week’s report include:

·        The New Year came with baggage from the old for thousands of federal employees caught in the middle of a budget tug-of-war between Congress and the White House that has led to a partial government shutdown.

·        The volatility in stock markets continued early in the week as a slew of weaker-than-expected economic data and signs of a slowing China roused investor concerns that global growth may be slowing faster than expected.

·        Fortunately, a strong payrolls tally lifted investors’ spirits by week’s end. Employment rose 312k and the unemployment rate edged up to 3.9% as more people joined the workforce. Hourly earnings growth also topped 3% (year-on-year) for a third consecutive month.

 

The Weekly Bottom Line

by Sergio Mariaca on Dec 23, 2018 10:08:03 AM |Share:

Here is what happened in the Capital Markets this week.

The Weekly Bottom Line (please click link to open)

The Weekly Bottom Line, courtesy of TD Economics, includes a review of market performances, recent key economic indicators, a calendar of upcoming key economic releases, and other relevant data. The highlights from this week’s report include:

·        As widely expected, the Fed hiked rates once more this year. At the same time, the Fed’s dot plot moved lower over the forecast horizon. These changes are consistent with a softer inflation and economic outlook.

·        Data came in broadly positive, with housing starts and home resales both defying weaker market expectations. Consumer spending remained hot in November, with consumption looking set to advance by a sturdy 4% (annualized) in Q4.

·        The late-year equity market sell off continued this week, with looming risks for a partial government shutdown marking the latest in a series of factors that are likely to weigh on sentiment through the New Year.

The Weekly Bottom Line

by Sergio Mariaca on Dec 14, 2018 4:23:16 PM |Share:

Here is what happened in the Capital Markets this week.

The Weekly Bottom Line (please click link to open)

The Weekly Bottom Line, courtesy of TD Economics, includes a review of market performances, recent key economic indicators, a calendar of upcoming key economic releases, and other relevant data. The highlights from this week’s report include:

·        After some optimism early in the week, financial market sentiment soured as focus shifted back to fears of an escalation in trade tensions, Brexit uncertainty, and a potential economic downturn in 2019.

·        The U.S. consumer remained unbowed in November, with consumer spending now tracking above 3% annualized in Q4. Inflation has cooled in line with oil prices, which should help to support real spending going forward.

·        The FOMC makes its final decision of 2019 next week, and a hike is universally expected. We will be watching closely to see how members’ views have changed about how many hikes will ultimately be required in this cycle.

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