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The Weekly Bottom Line

by Sergio Mariaca on Sep 21, 2018 2:10:58 PM |Share:

Here is what happened in the Capital Markets this week.

The Weekly Bottom Line (please click link to open)

The Weekly Bottom Line, courtesy of TD Economics, includes a review of market performances, recent key economic indicators, a calendar of upcoming key economic releases, and other relevant data. The highlights from this week’s report include:

·         U.S. equity markets were unbowed by escalating trade actions between the U.S. and China this week. The S&P500 reached new highs bolstered by healthy earnings reports and growth in share buybacks.

·         Equity market optimism is backed up by an economy set to grow by an impressive 2.9% this year, boosted by fiscal stimulus. The Fed is expected to respond to consistently above-trend growth with another 25 basis point rate hike next week, taking the upper limit of the fed funds rate to 2.25%.

·         Our latest forecast does not include the impacts of the latest tit for tat tariffs between the U.S. and China. If the current tranche plays out as planned, it could weigh notably on growth at the same time as the fiscal sugar rush fades.

The Weekly Bottom Line

by Sergio Mariaca on Sep 14, 2018 3:04:54 PM |Share:

Here is what happened in the Capital Markets this week.

The Weekly Bottom Line (please click link to open)

The Weekly Bottom Line, courtesy of TD Economics, includes a review of market performances, recent key economic indicators, a calendar of upcoming key economic releases, and other relevant data. The highlights from this week’s report include:

·         Foreign central banks took center stage this week. The Central Bank of Turkey raised its policy rate to 24% from 17.75% in the hope of retaining and attracting new foreign capital.

·         The ECB confirmed it will taper its asset purchases to €15 bn a month in October, with the program slated to end this December.

·         On the domestic front, data this week confirmed that a robust economic expansion is underway. Labor market conditions are increasingly tilting in favor of workers.

The Weekly Bottom Line

by Sergio Mariaca on Sep 7, 2018 2:43:45 PM |Share:

Here is what happened in the Capital Markets this week.

The Weekly Bottom Line (please click link to open)

The Weekly Bottom Line, courtesy of TD Economics, includes a review of market performances, recent key economic indicators, a calendar of upcoming key economic releases, and other relevant data. The highlights from this week’s report include:

·         Concerns about emerging markets continued to weigh on investor sentiment this week, with the selloff in EM assets and currencies spreading beyond Turkey and Argentina.

·         Meanwhile, domestic data remained positive. ISM indices for both manufacturing and services sectors rose handsomely in August. The payroll report delivered another batch of good news with 201k new jobs created on the month and wage growth accelerating.

·         All told, the U.S. economy continues to boom, giving the Fed little reason to alter its interest rate normalization plans that include another increase on September 26th.

The Weekly Bottom Line

by Sergio Mariaca on Aug 31, 2018 5:22:38 PM |Share:

Here is what happened in the Capital Markets this week.

The Weekly Bottom Line (please click link to open)

The Weekly Bottom Line, courtesy of TD Economics, includes a review of market performances, recent key economic indicators, a calendar of upcoming key economic releases, and other relevant data. The highlights from this week’s report include:

·         Markets reacted positively to developments that the U.S. and Mexico had reached a trade deal. Details still need to be finalized, including Canada’s position. A revised, trilateral agreement looks unlikely to be achieved today.

·         Data was broadly positive this week. Second quarter GDP was revised up slightly, and after-tax corp. profits rose to the highest y/y pace since 2012. A 0.2% July rise in real spending marks a good start to third quarter consumption.

·         Core PCE rose 2% y/y in July. Steady inflation, holding at or near target since March, gives the Fed scope to continue on with its gradual reduction in stimulus. The next Fed hike is expected to come in September.

The Weekly Bottom Line

by Sergio Mariaca on Aug 24, 2018 4:01:21 PM |Share:

Here is what happened in the Capital Markets this week.

The Weekly Bottom Line (please click link to open)

The Weekly Bottom Line, courtesy of TD Economics, includes a review of market performances, recent key economic indicators, a calendar of upcoming key economic releases, and other relevant data. The highlights from this week’s report include:

·        Financial markets jitters have eased somewhat this week as concerns about emerging countries have temporarily subsided, helped in part by a lower U.S. dollar.

·        Economic data was mixed. U.S. business investment remained upbeat in July, with new orders of capital goods (ex. aircraft) rising 1.4% m/m. Meanwhile, the housing market disappointed yet again in July.

·        On the policy front, FOMC meeting minutes and a speech by Chairman Powell noted the recent strength in economic performance and confidence in the outlook, signaling continued gradual interest rate increases.

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